Topeka, Kansas
Mowing
When you can next cut it, and the best slot this weekend.
Best weekend slot
Saturday 8am–7pm
Verdict: Good to go, 80% chance it holds
dry for over a week by then, ground firm
Next mow
Today 8am–7pm
Verdict: Good to go, 75% chance it holds
temperature — 12°C
The next 10 days
Each row is a day, morning on the left. The more solid a block, the more of the forecast runs agree you can mow. Open a day for the hour-by-hour forecast behind it.
Monday 19 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — temperature — 12°C
Monday 19 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% 90% 95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 4% 10% 6% 1% 0% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 7° 7° 6° 6° 9° 12° 14° 16° 17° 18° 18° 19° 18° 16° 16° 15° Windkm/h 6 5 5 5 5 10 12 14 15 14 13 13 11 9 9 10 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing slowly (growth potential 0.26). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Monday 19 October · 8am–7pmConfident
8am–7pm — temperature — 12°C
75% good to go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 4 hit rain.
Limiting factor:temperature
Tuesday 20 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — temperature — 14°C
Tuesday 20 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1% 3% 2% 0% 1% 1% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 8° 8° 8° 7° 9° 14° 18° 20° 21° 20° 21° 21° 20° 19° 16° 16° Windkm/h 3 4 5 4 1 5 7 8 12 8 15 12 11 10 12 13 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing steadily (growth potential 0.39). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Tuesday 20 October · 8am–7pmConfident
8am–7pm — temperature — 14°C
90% prime time — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 10 hit rain.
Limiting factor:temperature
Wednesday 21 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — dry since Thursday by then, ground firm
Wednesday 21 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — 95% 90% 95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 4% 7% 3% 2% 6% 5% 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 13° 13° 12° 12° 14° 17° 19° 21° 22° 23° 23° 23° 22° 20° 18° 17° Windkm/h 12 11 11 12 11 15 16 17 18 18 17 17 14 11 11 12 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing well (growth potential 0.60). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Wednesday 21 October · 8am–7pmConfident
8am–7pm — dry since Thursday by then, ground firm
80% good to go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 4 hit rain.
Limiting factor:none
Thursday 22 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — dry for over a week by then, ground firm
Thursday 22 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 14° 14° 14° 15° 16° 18° 18° 19° 22° 23° 24° 24° 23° 21° 21° 20° Windkm/h 11 12 12 11 12 15 16 16 17 18 18 18 14 12 12 15 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing well (growth potential 0.67). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Thursday 22 October · 8am–7pmConfident
8am–7pm — dry for over a week by then, ground firm
>95% prime time — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. Every forecast run agrees.
Limiting factor:none
Friday 23 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — dry for over a week by then, ground firm
Friday 23 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 15° 15° 15° 14° 16° 19° 21° 23° 24° 25° 25° 25° 24° 22° 19° 19° Windkm/h 13 15 14 14 16 22 24 26 28 28 29 25 24 20 17 18 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing well (growth potential 0.71). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Friday 23 October · 8am–7pmReasonably confident
8am–7pm — dry for over a week by then, ground firm
>95% prime time — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. Every forecast run agrees.
Limiting factor:none
Saturday 24 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — dry for over a week by then, ground firm
Saturday 24 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% 95% 90% 90% 90% 95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 1% 0% 3% 3% 0% 1% 1% 1% 1% 5% 7% 6% 8% 5% 4% 6% Rainmm — — — 0.1 — — — — — 0.1 0.1 0.1 — — — 0.1 Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 15° 15° 15° 16° 17° 19° 20° 22° 24° 25° 25° 24° 23° 22° 21° 21° Windkm/h 16 16 17 19 21 23 26 28 30 29 27 25 24 23 22 22 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing well (growth potential 0.71). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Saturday 24 October · 8am–7pmReasonably confident
8am–7pm — dry for over a week by then, ground firm
80% good to go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 4 hit rain.
Limiting factor:none
Sunday 25 October: 8 hours worth using. 11am–7pm — grass dry — rain earlier that day
Sunday 25 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — 65% 60% 60% 65% 75% 75% 80% 80% 85% 85% 85% — — Verdict dark dark dark Touch and go Touch and go Touch and go Good to go Good to go Good to go Good to go Good to go Prime time Good to go Good to go dark dark Rainchance 12% 17% 3% 4% 6% 10% 9% 6% 7% 3% 12% 4% 4% 8% 4% 0% Rainmm 0.2 0.5 — — 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 — — 0.2 — — Grass damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp dry dry dry dry dry damp damp Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 16° 16° 15° 16° 17° 18° 19° 20° 20° 21° 21° 21° 20° 19° 17° 17° Windkm/h 9 9 8 7 8 10 11 11 11 9 8 6 4 3 4 5 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing well (growth potential 0.69). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Sunday 25 October · 11am–7pmLow confidence this far out
11am–7pm — grass dry — rain earlier that day
60% touch and go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 3 found the grass too wet.
Limiting factor:grass wetness
Monday 26 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — rain earlier that day, ground firm
Monday 26 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — 80% 80% 85% 95% >95% 95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Good to go Good to go Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 1% 0% 3% 5% 1% 1% 0% 3% 2% 1% 4% 1% 1% 0% 6% 1% Rainmm — — 0.1 0.1 — — — — — — 0.1 — — — — 0.1 Grass dry dry dry damp dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 14° 14° 14° 15° 17° 18° 20° 21° 22° 23° 23° 23° 22° 21° 20° 19° Windkm/h 10 10 11 13 16 19 21 23 24 25 24 23 20 16 14 16 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing well (growth potential 0.63). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Monday 26 October · 8am–7pmReasonably confident
8am–7pm — rain earlier that day, ground firm
80% good to go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 4 found the grass too wet.
Limiting factor:none
Tuesday 27 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — dry since Sunday by then, ground firm
Tuesday 27 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — 90% 90% 90% 85% 90% 95% 90% 90% 85% 90% 95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 5% 4% 2% 4% 3% 8% 6% 5% 3% 1% 8% 6% 5% 3% 10% 8% Rainmm 0.1 0.1 — 0.1 — 0.1 — — 0.1 — 0.1 — — 0.1 0.1 0.1 Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 13° 12° 12° 11° 11° 11° 11° 11° 11° 11° 10° 9° 8° 7° 6° 6° Windkm/h 22 21 20 22 23 24 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 27 26 26 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing slowly (growth potential 0.33). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Tuesday 27 October · 8am–7pmLow confidence this far out
8am–7pm — dry since Sunday by then, ground firm
75% good to go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 4 found the grass too wet.
Limiting factor:none
Wednesday 28 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.02). Conditions themselves are fine.
Wednesday 28 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — <5% <5% 80% 85% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% 90% — — Verdict nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing Already gone Already gone Rainchance 5% 7% 8% 5% 5% 6% 5% 3% 5% 4% 3% 6% 5% 10% · · Rainmm 0.2 0.1 0.1 — 0.1 0.1 0.1 — 0.1 — 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 · · Grass dry dry damp dry damp dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry · · Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm · · Temp 4° 3° 2° 3° 3° 4° 5° 7° 7° 8° 8° 8° 7° 6° · · Windkm/h 26 23 22 23 25 26 26 26 25 24 23 22 20 17 · · Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ · · Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.02). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Wednesday 28 OctoberLow confidence this far out
Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.02). Conditions themselves are fine.
90% nothing to cut. About 1 run in 10 found the grass barely growing.
Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.
Limiting factor:growth
good to go touch and go dark, frost or snow already goneFainter means fewer forecast runs agree.
Growth
How fast it is growing, and when it will need cutting again.
26%Growing slowly
Of the fastest this grass could grow. The turf-industry measure, from today's temperature and day length.
Roughly 0.9mm a day. A lawn cut today would be ready for another in about a week.
Held back by both temperature and short days — 11.0 hours of daylight at 12°C.
- Over the next 10 days
- about 18mm of leaf
- Next cut due
- in about a week
This only knows temperature and day length. Feeding, watering, shade and cutting height all move it, so treat it as a rough guide.
Worked out from the PACE Turf growth potential model and day length —how and why.
Seeding
Soil temperature at germination depth, and when the window opens.
Soil temperature in Topeka, Kansas
53°F11.5°C
at 6cm — germination depth
Seeding conditions open in about 1 days.
Warming over the next 10 days.
Cross-checks against an independent estimate from air temperature (11.9°C), which agrees to within 0.5°C.
Most cool-season lawns in the northern US and Canada are bluegrass, tall fescue, or a mix of the two. We assume that, and use 12.5°C as the seeding threshold.
Thresholds for every species
The differences are small. Ryegrass is the quickest off the mark; bluegrass is the slowest and wants the warmest soil. Everything else sits between.
| Species | Soil needed | Days to sprout |
|---|---|---|
| Perennial ryegrass | 8°C | 5–10 |
| Red / chewings fescue | 8–10°C | 10–14 |
| Tall fescuelikely yours | 10–12°C | 10–14 |
| Browntop bentColonial bentgrass | 10–12°C | 14–21 |
| Smooth-stalked meadow grassKentucky bluegrasslikely yours | 12–13°C | 14–28 |
Feeding
Why timing decides whether a feed does anything at all.
Coming in the app
Grass takes up nitrogen when it is growing. Feed a lawn that has stopped and most of it washes past the roots — which is why timing beats product choice.
Right now this lawn is not growing fast enough to make much use of a feed.
The app will work out the actual feeding windows for your lawn — along with weed control, scarifying and moss treatment — and tell you when they open without you having to check.
Topeka, Kansas in detail
Soil temperature in Topeka, Kansas is currently 11.5°C at 6cm, and rising about 3.2°C over the next 10 days. That depth matters because it is where grass seed sits and where roots start working, and it lags air temperature by days — which is why a warm afternoon here tells you very little on its own.
Lawns in this area are typically Kentucky bluegrass with tall fescue, the usual mix for cool-season lawns at this latitude. That blend needs the soil to hold above 12.5°C before seed germinates reliably. Seeding conditions open in about 1 days.
9 of the next 10 days are good mowing days. The best weekend slot right now is Saturday 8am–7pm, on the basis that dry for over a week by then, ground firm.
The next recommended window in Topeka opens at 8am on Monday 19 October, because that is first light. Underfoot, the ground reads as firm after 20mm rain over the last week, medium (loam) soil.
Save this lawn and we will email you when the windows open.
We already send you the forecast email? Use the same address.
Chances counted across 82 forecast runs from NCEP GEFS, 25km and ECMWF IFS ensemble, 25km. Forecast from Open-Meteo, refreshed through the day. Soil temperature is modelled, not measured — how that works and where the thresholds come from.