Seattle, Washington
Mowing
When you can next cut it, and the best slot this weekend.
Best weekend slot
Nothing doing
Verdict: Not worth it
Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.09). Conditions themselves are fine.
Today morning is your first decent window.
Next mow
Today 8am–7pm
Verdict: Prime time, >95% chance it holds
temperature — 10°C
The next 10 days
Each row is a day, morning on the left. The more solid a block, the more of the forecast runs agree you can mow. Open a day for the hour-by-hour forecast behind it.
Monday 19 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — temperature — 10°C
Monday 19 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 0% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 8° 8° 8° 8° 9° 10° 12° 13° 14° 14° 14° 14° 14° 12° 11° 10° Windkm/h 2 3 3 3 5 5 5 3 3 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.14). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Monday 19 October · 8am–7pmConfident
8am–7pm — temperature — 10°C
>95% prime time — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. Every forecast run agrees.
Limiting factor:temperature
Tuesday 20 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
Tuesday 20 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 7° 7° 7° 7° 9° 11° 13° 14° 16° 17° 16° 16° 14° 12° 11° 10° Windkm/h 9 10 9 9 10 11 9 10 10 10 11 12 11 10 9 7 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.16). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Tuesday 20 October · 8am–7pmConfident
8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
>95% prime time — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. Every forecast run agrees.
Limiting factor:temperature
Wednesday 21 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — temperature — 12°C
Wednesday 21 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 8° 8° 8° 8° 10° 12° 14° 16° 18° 18° 19° 18° 17° 14° 13° 12° Windkm/h 5 5 5 4 2 1 4 6 7 6 6 5 5 6 7 7 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing slowly (growth potential 0.20). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Wednesday 21 October · 8am–7pmConfident
8am–7pm — temperature — 12°C
>95% prime time — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. Every forecast run agrees.
Limiting factor:temperature
Thursday 22 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
Thursday 22 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% 95% 90% 90% 85% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Good to go dark dark Rainchance 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 3% 1% 6% 7% 7% 11% 9% 20% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — 0.1 — — 0.1 0.1 0.2 Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry damp Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 8° 8° 8° 8° 9° 11° 13° 14° 15° 16° 16° 16° 16° 13° 11° 11° Windkm/h 3 3 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 3 5 3 6 13 10 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing slowly (growth potential 0.20). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Thursday 22 October · 8am–7pmConfident
8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
75% good to go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 4 hit rain.
Limiting factor:temperature
Friday 23 October: 6 hours worth using. 1pm–7pm — rain earlier that day, ground firm
Friday 23 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — 40% 40% 45% 45% 50% 80% 90% 95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Touch and go Touch and go Touch and go Touch and go Touch and go Good to go Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 4% 2% 10% 11% 2% 4% 3% 7% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% Rainmm — — 0.1 0.1 — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass wet wet wet wet wet wet wet damp damp dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 10° 10° 10° 9° 10° 10° 12° 13° 14° 15° 15° 14° 13° 12° 11° 9° Windkm/h 7 8 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 8 10 11 10 7 6 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing slowly (growth potential 0.20). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Friday 23 October · 1pm–7pmLow confidence this far out
1pm–7pm — rain earlier that day, ground firm
75% good to go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 4 found the grass too wet.
Limiting factor:none
Saturday 24 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.09). Conditions themselves are fine.
Saturday 24 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — 70% 70% 75% 80% 75% 70% 70% 70% 75% 70% 65% — — Verdict nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing Rainchance 4% 4% 4% 5% 6% 8% 6% 12% 13% 7% 13% 8% 11% 11% 17% 12% Rainmm — — 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 Grass damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 6° 5° 5° 5° 7° 9° 11° 12° 13° 13° 14° 14° 13° 13° 12° 11° Windkm/h 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 3 5 6 6 7 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.09). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Saturday 24 OctoberLow confidence this far out
Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.09). Conditions themselves are fine.
80% nothing to cut. About 1 run in 4 found the grass barely growing.
Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.
Limiting factor:growth
Sunday 25 October: no hours worth using. No — 0.3mm of rain falling.
Sunday 25 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — 55% 55% 55% 55% 55% 50% 45% 45% 45% 45% 45% — — Verdict dark dark dark Touch and go Touch and go Touch and go Touch and go Touch and go Touch and go Touch and go Touch and go Touch and go Touch and go Touch and go dark dark Rainchance 8% 7% 13% 19% 13% 16% 10% 14% 14% 12% 14% 10% 17% 9% 10% 14% Rainmm 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 Grass damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp wet wet wet wet wet wet wet wet Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 9° 9° 8° 8° 8° 8° 9° 9° 10° 10° 10° 11° 11° 10° 9° 8° Windkm/h 12 11 9 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 5 6 7 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.13). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Sunday 25 OctoberLow confidence this far out
No — 0.3mm of rain falling.
55% touch and go. About half the runs found the grass too wet.
Limiting factor:grass wetness
Monday 26 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.07). Conditions themselves are fine.
Monday 26 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — 40% 40% 40% 40% 45% 75% 80% 80% 80% 85% 80% — — Verdict nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing Rainchance 9% 13% 2% 6% 8% 10% 4% 14% 8% 7% 9% 10% 7% 10% 7% 6% Rainmm 0.1 0.2 — 0.1 0.1 0.1 — 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 — Grass wet wet wet wet wet wet wet wet damp damp damp damp dry damp damp damp Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 6° 6° 6° 6° 7° 9° 10° 12° 13° 13° 13° 12° 11° 10° 9° 8° Windkm/h 7 6 6 6 8 10 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 10 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.07). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Monday 26 OctoberLow confidence this far out
Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.07). Conditions themselves are fine.
85% nothing to cut. About 1 run in 6 found the grass barely growing.
Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.
Limiting factor:growth
Tuesday 27 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.09). Conditions themselves are fine.
Tuesday 27 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — 65% 65% 70% 70% 80% 80% 80% 80% 85% 85% — — — Verdict nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing Rainchance 3% 5% 8% 9% 10% 7% 3% 8% 9% 11% 9% 10% 7% 7% 6% 15% Rainmm 0.1 — — 0.1 0.1 0.1 — 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 Grass damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp dry dry dry dry dry dry damp damp Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 6° 6° 5° 6° 7° 9° 12° 14° 16° 17° 17° 16° 14° 13° 11° 9° Windkm/h 6 6 5 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 9 8 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — — Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.09). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Tuesday 27 OctoberLow confidence this far out
Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.09). Conditions themselves are fine.
85% nothing to cut. About 1 run in 6 found the grass barely growing.
Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.
Limiting factor:growth
Wednesday 28 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.10). Conditions themselves are fine.
Wednesday 28 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — 65% 65% 65% 65% 65% 70% 75% 75% 70% — — — — Verdict nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing Already gone Already gone Already gone Already gone Rainchance 2% 6% 8% 7% 6% 8% 8% 11% 6% 12% 13% 16% · · · · Rainmm — 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 · · · · Grass damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp damp · · · · Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm · · · · Temp 6° 6° 5° 6° 7° 9° 11° 13° 14° 15° 15° 15° · · · · Windkm/h 3 2 2 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 · · · · Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ · · · · Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.10). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Wednesday 28 OctoberLow confidence this far out
Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.10). Conditions themselves are fine.
75% nothing to cut. About 1 run in 4 found the grass barely growing.
Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.
Limiting factor:growth
good to go touch and go dark, frost or snow already goneFainter means fewer forecast runs agree.
Growth
How fast it is growing, and when it will need cutting again.
14%Barely growing
Of the fastest this grass could grow. The turf-industry measure, from today's temperature and day length.
The lawn is barely growing, so it does not need cutting. Leave it — taking leaf off a sward that cannot replace it costs more than it gives.
Held back by both temperature and short days — 10.7 hours of daylight at 10°C.
- Over the next 10 days
- about 5mm of leaf
- Next cut due
- not within the next ten days
This only knows temperature and day length. Feeding, watering, shade and cutting height all move it, so treat it as a rough guide.
Worked out from the PACE Turf growth potential model and day length —how and why.
Seeding
Soil temperature at germination depth, and when the window opens.
Soil temperature in Seattle, Washington
50°F10.2°C
at 6cm — germination depth
Too cold to seed — 10.2°C at 6cm and not warming.
Cooling over the next 10 days.
Cross-checks against an independent estimate from air temperature (11.2°C), which agrees to within 0.2°C.
Most cool-season lawns in the northern US and Canada are bluegrass, tall fescue, or a mix of the two. We assume that, and use 12.5°C as the seeding threshold.
Thresholds for every species
The differences are small. Ryegrass is the quickest off the mark; bluegrass is the slowest and wants the warmest soil. Everything else sits between.
| Species | Soil needed | Days to sprout |
|---|---|---|
| Perennial ryegrass | 8°C | 5–10 |
| Red / chewings fescue | 8–10°C | 10–14 |
| Tall fescuelikely yours | 10–12°C | 10–14 |
| Browntop bentColonial bentgrass | 10–12°C | 14–21 |
| Smooth-stalked meadow grassKentucky bluegrasslikely yours | 12–13°C | 14–28 |
Feeding
Why timing decides whether a feed does anything at all.
Coming in the app
Grass takes up nitrogen when it is growing. Feed a lawn that has stopped and most of it washes past the roots — which is why timing beats product choice.
Right now this lawn is not growing fast enough to make much use of a feed.
The app will work out the actual feeding windows for your lawn — along with weed control, scarifying and moss treatment — and tell you when they open without you having to check.
Seattle, Washington in detail
Soil temperature in Seattle, Washington is currently 10.2°C at 6cm, and falling about 7.1°C over the next 10 days. That depth matters because it is where grass seed sits and where roots start working, and it lags air temperature by days — which is why a warm afternoon here tells you very little on its own.
Lawns in this area are typically Kentucky bluegrass with tall fescue, the usual mix for cool-season lawns at this latitude. That blend needs the soil to hold above 12.5°C before seed germinates reliably. Too cold to seed — 10.2°C at 6cm and not warming.
5 of the next 10 days look workable. As for the weekend: nothing doing. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.09). Conditions themselves are fine.
The next recommended window in Seattle opens at 8am on Monday 19 October, because that is first light. Underfoot, the ground reads as firm after 4mm rain over the last week, medium (loam) soil.
Save this lawn and we will email you when the windows open.
We already send you the forecast email? Use the same address.
Chances counted across 82 forecast runs from NCEP GEFS, 25km and ECMWF IFS ensemble, 25km. Forecast from Open-Meteo, refreshed through the day. Soil temperature is modelled, not measured — how that works and where the thresholds come from.