Kingston, Ontario

Kingston, Ontario44.2298, -76.4810

Mowing

When you can next cut it, and the best slot this weekend.

Best weekend slot

Sunday 8am–7pm

Verdict: Prime time, >95% chance it holds

ground firm — 0mm rain over the last week, fine (clay) soil

Next mow

Sunday 8am–7pm

Verdict: Prime time, >95% chance it holds

ground firm — 0mm rain over the last week, fine (clay) soil

  • Worth watching: Ground still soft. 113mm rain over the last week, fine (clay) soil. A mower will mark it, and a ride-on will rut it. More

The next 10 days

Each row is a day, morning on the left. The more solid a block, the more of the forecast runs agree you can mow. Open a day for the hour-by-hour forecast behind it.

  1. Monday 19 October: no hours worth using. No — ground saturated, 113mm rain over the last week, fine (clay) soil.
    Monday 19 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%——
    VerdictdarkdarkdarkForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itdarkdark
    Rainchance0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
    Rainmm————————————————
    Grassdrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydamp
    Groundsoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensodden
    Temp10°10°11°11°12°13°14°15°15°16°16°15°14°13°12°11°
    Windkm/h16171818181816151412141411997
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: growing slowly (growth potential 0.26). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Monday 19 OctoberConfident

    No — ground saturated, 113mm rain over the last week, fine (clay) soil.

    <5% forget it. Almost every run found the ground too soft.

    Limiting factor:ground firmness

  2. Tuesday 20 October: no hours worth using. No — ground saturated, 113mm rain over the last week, fine (clay) soil.
    Tuesday 20 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%——
    VerdictdarkdarkdarkForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itdarkdark
    Rainchance0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
    Rainmm————————————————
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakeddampdrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydry
    Groundsoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensodden
    Temp7°7°6°6°7°9°10°11°12°13°13°13°11°10°10°9°
    Windkm/h17161718181919191919181613111312
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.11). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Tuesday 20 OctoberConfident

    No — ground saturated, 113mm rain over the last week, fine (clay) soil.

    <5% forget it. Almost every run found the ground too soft.

    Limiting factor:ground firmness

  3. Wednesday 21 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.09). Conditions themselves are fine.
    Wednesday 21 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%——
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growing
    Rainchance0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
    Rainmm————————————————
    Grassdrydampdampdampdrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydry
    Groundsoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensodden
    Temp5°5°5°4°6°7°9°11°13°14°14°14°14°12°11°10°
    Windkm/h1414141416151311108654455
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.09). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Wednesday 21 OctoberConfident

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.09). Conditions themselves are fine.

    <5% nothing to cut. Almost every run found the grass barely growing.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

  4. Thursday 22 October: no hours worth using. No — ground soft, 19mm rain over the last week, fine (clay) soil.
    Thursday 22 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%——
    VerdictdarkdarkdarkForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itdarkdark
    Rainchance0%0%0%0%0%1%2%0%1%2%3%1%1%1%2%0%
    Rainmm————————————————
    Grasswetwetsoakedsoakedsoakeddampdrydrydrydrydrydrydrydampdampdamp
    Groundsoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggy
    Temp7°7°7°7°8°10°12°13°15°15°16°16°15°14°13°12°
    Windkm/h6545454124431346
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.15). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Thursday 22 OctoberConfident

    No — ground soft, 19mm rain over the last week, fine (clay) soil.

    <5% forget it. Almost every run found the ground too soft.

    Limiting factor:ground firmness

  5. Friday 23 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.08). Conditions themselves are fine.
    Friday 23 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%——
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growing
    Rainchance0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
    Rainmm————————————————
    Grassdrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydry
    Groundsoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoftsoftsoftsoftsoft
    Temp5°5°4°4°5°7°9°10°11°12°13°12°12°10°9°8°
    Windkm/h16161616161616161615151414141414
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.08). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Friday 23 OctoberReasonably confident

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.08). Conditions themselves are fine.

    >95% nothing to cut. Every forecast run agrees.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

  6. Saturday 24 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.06). Conditions themselves are fine.
    Saturday 24 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%——
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growing
    Rainchance0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%
    Rainmm————————————————
    Grassdrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydry
    Groundsoftfrozenfrozensoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoft
    Temp5°5°5°6°7°9°10°11°11°11°12°12°12°11°11°10°
    Windkm/h4334812141514121198778
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.06). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Saturday 24 OctoberReasonably confident

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.06). Conditions themselves are fine.

    >95% nothing to cut. Every forecast run agrees.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

  7. Sunday 25 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — ground firm — 0mm rain over the last week, fine (clay) soil
    Sunday 25 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%——
    VerdictdarkdarkdarkPrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timedarkdark
    Rainchance0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%
    Rainmm————————————————
    Grassdrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydry
    Groundsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftfirmfirmfirmfirmfirm
    Temp10°9°9°9°10°10°11°12°12°13°14°14°14°14°14°14°
    Windkm/h20202121212222212120181515172124
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.18). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Sunday 25 October · 8am–7pmReasonably confident

    8am–7pm — ground firm — 0mm rain over the last week, fine (clay) soil

    >95% prime time — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. Every forecast run agrees.

    Limiting factor:ground firmness

  8. Monday 26 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — grass dry — dry again 4 hours after a shower
    Monday 26 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———90%95%95%95%>95%>95%95%95%>95%>95%>95%——
    VerdictdarkdarkdarkPrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timedarkdark
    Rainchance4%2%4%6%3%3%1%0%3%5%5%1%3%2%5%7%
    Rainmm0.1—0.1———————————0.1—
    Grassdrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydry
    Groundfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirm
    Temp12°12°12°13°13°14°15°16°17°17°17°17°17°16°15°14°
    Windkm/h23222121212223242626252321181413
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: growing steadily (growth potential 0.39). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Monday 26 October · 8am–7pmReasonably confident

    8am–7pm — grass dry — dry again 4 hours after a shower

    80% good to go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 4 hit rain.

    Limiting factor:grass wetness

  9. Tuesday 27 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
    Tuesday 27 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———90%85%90%95%95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%——
    VerdictdarkdarkdarkPrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timedarkdark
    Rainchance3%3%1%0%3%4%3%5%3%0%3%2%4%3%1%5%
    Rainmm————————————————
    Grassdrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydry
    Groundfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirm
    Temp9°8°8°9°10°11°12°13°15°16°16°16°15°15°15°14°
    Windkm/h4358131822242525231917161616
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: growing slowly (growth potential 0.23). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Tuesday 27 October · 8am–7pmLow confidence this far out

    8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C

    75% good to go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 4 hit rain.

    Limiting factor:temperature

  10. Wednesday 28 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.07). Conditions themselves are fine.
    Wednesday 28 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———95%95%95%95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%>95%——
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingAlready gone
    Rainchance1%0%1%3%1%0%1%0%0%3%1%2%1%1%3%·
    Rainmm———————————————·
    Grassdrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydrydry·
    Groundfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirm·
    Temp8°7°6°5°6°6°6°7°7°7°7°7°7°6°5°·
    Windkm/h161615141414151718191919191918·
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓—·

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.07). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Wednesday 28 OctoberLow confidence this far out

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.07). Conditions themselves are fine.

    >95% nothing to cut. Every forecast run agrees.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

good to go touch and go dark, frost or snow already goneFainter means fewer forecast runs agree.

How you feel about mowing

Sensible middle ground.

Petrol or battery. The baseline.

Growth

How fast it is growing, and when it will need cutting again.

26%Growing slowly

Of the fastest this grass could grow. The turf-industry measure, from today's temperature and day length.

Growing slowly — roughly 0.9mm a day. It will not put on enough to need cutting within the next 10 days.

Held back by both temperature and short days — 10.8 hours of daylight at 12°C.

Over the next 10 days
about 6mm of leaf
Next cut due
not within the next ten days

This only knows temperature and day length. Feeding, watering, shade and cutting height all move it, so treat it as a rough guide.

Worked out from the PACE Turf growth potential model and day length —how and why.

Seeding

Soil temperature at germination depth, and when the window opens.

Soil temperature in Kingston, Ontario

9.8°C50°F

at 6cm — germination depth

Too cold to seed — 9.8°C at 6cm and not warming.

Cooling over the next 10 days.

Cross-checks against an independent estimate from air temperature (9.6°C), which agrees to within 1.5°C.

Most cool-season lawns in the northern US and Canada are bluegrass, tall fescue, or a mix of the two. We assume that, and use 12.5°C as the seeding threshold.

Thresholds for every species

The differences are small. Ryegrass is the quickest off the mark; bluegrass is the slowest and wants the warmest soil. Everything else sits between.

Soil temperature at 6cm for reliable germination. Sources onthe method page.
SpeciesSoil neededDays to sprout
Perennial ryegrass8°C5–10
Red / chewings fescue8–10°C10–14
Tall fescuelikely yours10–12°C10–14
Browntop bentColonial bentgrass10–12°C14–21
Smooth-stalked meadow grassKentucky bluegrasslikely yours12–13°C14–28

Feeding

Why timing decides whether a feed does anything at all.

Coming in the app

Grass takes up nitrogen when it is growing. Feed a lawn that has stopped and most of it washes past the roots — which is why timing beats product choice.

Right now this lawn is not growing fast enough to make much use of a feed.

The app will work out the actual feeding windows for your lawn — along with weed control, scarifying and moss treatment — and tell you when they open without you having to check.

Why timing beats product choice

Kingston, Ontario in detail

Soil temperature in Kingston, Ontario is currently 9.8°C at 6cm, and falling about 7.3°C over the next 10 days. That depth matters because it is where grass seed sits and where roots start working, and it lags air temperature by days — which is why a warm afternoon here tells you very little on its own.

Lawns in this area are typically Kentucky bluegrass with tall fescue, the usual mix for cool-season lawns at this latitude. That blend needs the soil to hold above 12.5°C before seed germinates reliably. Too cold to seed — 9.8°C at 6cm and not warming.

6 of the next 10 days look workable. The best weekend slot right now is Sunday 8am–7pm, on the basis that ground firm — 0mm rain over the last week, fine (clay) soil.

The next recommended window in Kingston opens at 8am on Sunday 25 October, because that is first light. Underfoot, the ground reads as saturated after 113mm rain over the last week, fine (clay) soil.

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Chances counted across 82 forecast runs from NCEP GEFS, 25km and ECMWF IFS ensemble, 25km. Forecast from Open-Meteo, refreshed through the day. Soil temperature is modelled, not measured — how that works and where the thresholds come from.