Erie, Pennsylvania
Mowing
When you can next cut it, and the best slot this weekend.
Best weekend slot
Saturday 8am–7pm
Verdict: Prime time, >95% chance it holds
temperature — 11°C
Next mow
Today 8am–7pm
Verdict: Prime time, >95% chance it holds
temperature — 11°C
The next 10 days
Each row is a day, morning on the left. The more solid a block, the more of the forecast runs agree you can mow. Open a day for the hour-by-hour forecast behind it.
Monday 19 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
Monday 19 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 6° 6° 6° 6° 8° 11° 14° 16° 16° 16° 16° 16° 16° 14° 12° 11° Windkm/h 14 16 15 13 12 11 9 9 11 12 11 9 7 3 2 7 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.16). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Monday 19 October · 8am–7pmConfident
8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
>95% prime time — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. Every forecast run agrees.
Limiting factor:temperature
Tuesday 20 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — temperature — 13°C
Tuesday 20 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 9° 9° 8° 8° 10° 13° 14° 14° 14° 15° 15° 15° 15° 13° 12° 12° Windkm/h 8 5 12 10 8 9 13 14 16 19 20 21 20 17 16 15 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing slowly (growth potential 0.20). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Tuesday 20 October · 8am–7pmConfident
8am–7pm — temperature — 13°C
>95% prime time — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. Every forecast run agrees.
Limiting factor:temperature
Wednesday 21 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
Wednesday 21 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 6° 6° 6° 6° 8° 11° 13° 14° 15° 15° 15° 14° 14° 13° 11° 11° Windkm/h 9 8 7 6 5 4 6 9 10 11 12 13 11 9 9 9 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.14). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Wednesday 21 October · 8am–7pmConfident
8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
>95% prime time — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. Every forecast run agrees.
Limiting factor:temperature
Thursday 22 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
Thursday 22 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% 95% >95% 90% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 0% 0% 1% 0% 1% 1% 6% 3% 9% 1% 1% 3% 2% 1% 1% 2% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 9° 9° 9° 9° 11° 13° 14° 15° 16° 16° 16° 15° 15° 13° 12° 12° Windkm/h 5 6 5 4 4 5 7 8 9 9 9 8 4 3 5 6 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing slowly (growth potential 0.20). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Thursday 22 October · 8am–7pmConfident
8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
80% good to go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 4 hit rain.
Limiting factor:temperature
Friday 23 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
Friday 23 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 9° 9° 9° 9° 11° 13° 15° 16° 17° 17° 17° 17° 17° 15° 12° 11° Windkm/h 7 6 5 6 7 10 11 13 15 16 17 17 15 13 14 14 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing slowly (growth potential 0.26). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Friday 23 October · 8am–7pmReasonably confident
8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
>95% prime time — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. Every forecast run agrees.
Limiting factor:temperature
Saturday 24 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
Saturday 24 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 8° 7° 7° 8° 9° 11° 13° 15° 16° 17° 18° 18° 17° 16° 14° 12° Windkm/h 20 20 21 22 23 23 22 19 15 12 11 11 12 13 16 18 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing slowly (growth potential 0.21). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Saturday 24 October · 8am–7pmReasonably confident
8am–7pm — temperature — 11°C
>95% prime time — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. Every forecast run agrees.
Limiting factor:temperature
Sunday 25 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — temperature — 10°C
Sunday 25 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 8° 8° 8° 9° 10° 12° 15° 16° 18° 19° 19° 18° 17° 16° 16° 15° Windkm/h 20 20 20 21 22 24 25 25 24 23 22 22 22 23 24 25 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing slowly (growth potential 0.27). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Sunday 25 October · 8am–7pmReasonably confident
8am–7pm — temperature — 10°C
>95% prime time — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. Every forecast run agrees.
Limiting factor:temperature
Monday 26 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — dry for over a week by then, ground firm
Monday 26 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — >95% 95% >95% >95% >95% 90% >95% >95% >95% 95% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 1% 1% 4% 2% 4% 1% 2% 0% 8% 1% 2% 3% 5% 1% 6% 3% Rainmm — — — — — — — — — — — — 0.1 — 0.1 — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 14° 13° 13° 13° 14° 16° 17° 17° 18° 17° 17° 17° 16° 15° 14° 12° Windkm/h 16 15 14 14 15 18 21 22 23 23 21 19 16 14 12 11 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing steadily (growth potential 0.45). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Monday 26 October · 8am–7pmReasonably confident
8am–7pm — dry for over a week by then, ground firm
80% good to go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 6 hit rain.
Limiting factor:none
Tuesday 27 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — dry for over a week by then, ground firm
Tuesday 27 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — 85% 85% 90% 90% 90% 90% >95% >95% 95% 90% >95% — — Verdict dark dark dark Good to go Good to go Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark dark Rainchance 4% 7% 7% 9% 3% 6% 11% 9% 7% 3% 1% 5% 8% 1% 5% 5% Rainmm — — — 0.1 — — 0.1 — — — — — — — — — Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm Temp 11° 11° 11° 12° 14° 16° 18° 20° 21° 22° 21° 21° 20° 19° 19° 18° Windkm/h 15 16 18 19 22 24 26 26 26 25 22 18 16 16 17 17 Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: growing steadily (growth potential 0.44). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Tuesday 27 October · 8am–7pmLow confidence this far out
8am–7pm — dry for over a week by then, ground firm
70% good to go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 3 hit rain.
Limiting factor:none
Wednesday 28 October: 11 hours worth using. 8am–7pm — grass slightly damp — 1 hour after the rain
Wednesday 28 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — 90% 95% 90% 90% 90% 90% 95% 90% 90% 90% 90% — — Verdict dark dark dark Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time Prime time dark Already gone Rainchance 3% 0% 4% 4% 0% 3% 8% 5% 1% 4% 4% 4% 4% 6% 4% · Rainmm — — — 0.1 — — 0.1 — — — — — — — — · Grass dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry dry · Ground firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm firm · Temp 9° 8° 7° 6° 6° 6° 7° 7° 7° 7° 8° 8° 8° 8° 8° · Windkm/h 20 21 22 22 19 16 13 14 15 17 18 18 18 18 19 · Daylight — — — ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ — · Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.10). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 82 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.
Wednesday 28 October · 8am–7pmLow confidence this far out
8am–7pm — grass slightly damp — 1 hour after the rain
80% good to go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 6 found the grass too wet.
Limiting factor:grass wetness
good to go touch and go dark, frost or snow already goneFainter means fewer forecast runs agree.
Growth
How fast it is growing, and when it will need cutting again.
16%Barely growing
Of the fastest this grass could grow. The turf-industry measure, from today's temperature and day length.
The lawn is barely growing, so it does not need cutting. Leave it — taking leaf off a sward that cannot replace it costs more than it gives.
Held back by both temperature and short days — 10.9 hours of daylight at 11°C.
- Over the next 10 days
- about 9mm of leaf
- Next cut due
- not within the next ten days
This only knows temperature and day length. Feeding, watering, shade and cutting height all move it, so treat it as a rough guide.
Worked out from the PACE Turf growth potential model and day length —how and why.
Seeding
Soil temperature at germination depth, and when the window opens.
Soil temperature in Erie, Pennsylvania
48°F8.7°C
at 6cm — germination depth
Too cold to seed — 8.7°C at 6cm and not warming.
Cooling over the next 10 days.
Cross-checks against an independent estimate from air temperature (10.9°C), which agrees to within 0.2°C.
Most cool-season lawns in the northern US and Canada are bluegrass, tall fescue, or a mix of the two. We assume that, and use 12.5°C as the seeding threshold.
Thresholds for every species
The differences are small. Ryegrass is the quickest off the mark; bluegrass is the slowest and wants the warmest soil. Everything else sits between.
| Species | Soil needed | Days to sprout |
|---|---|---|
| Perennial ryegrass | 8°C | 5–10 |
| Red / chewings fescue | 8–10°C | 10–14 |
| Tall fescuelikely yours | 10–12°C | 10–14 |
| Browntop bentColonial bentgrass | 10–12°C | 14–21 |
| Smooth-stalked meadow grassKentucky bluegrasslikely yours | 12–13°C | 14–28 |
Feeding
Why timing decides whether a feed does anything at all.
Coming in the app
Grass takes up nitrogen when it is growing. Feed a lawn that has stopped and most of it washes past the roots — which is why timing beats product choice.
Right now this lawn is not growing fast enough to make much use of a feed.
The app will work out the actual feeding windows for your lawn — along with weed control, scarifying and moss treatment — and tell you when they open without you having to check.
Erie, Pennsylvania in detail
Soil temperature in Erie, Pennsylvania is currently 8.7°C at 6cm, and falling about 4.1°C over the next 10 days. That depth matters because it is where grass seed sits and where roots start working, and it lags air temperature by days — which is why a warm afternoon here tells you very little on its own.
Lawns in this area are typically Kentucky bluegrass with tall fescue, the usual mix for cool-season lawns at this latitude. That blend needs the soil to hold above 12.5°C before seed germinates reliably. Too cold to seed — 8.7°C at 6cm and not warming.
9 of the next 10 days are good mowing days. The other one is held back by wet grass or soft ground. The best weekend slot right now is Saturday 8am–7pm, on the basis that temperature — 11°C.
The next recommended window in Erie opens at 8am on Monday 19 October, because that is first light. Underfoot, the ground reads as firm after 5mm rain over the last week, fine (clay) soil.
Save this lawn and we will email you when the windows open.
We already send you the forecast email? Use the same address.
Chances counted across 82 forecast runs from NCEP GEFS, 25km and ECMWF IFS ensemble, 25km. Forecast from Open-Meteo, refreshed through the day. Soil temperature is modelled, not measured — how that works and where the thresholds come from.