CH5, Flintshire

CH5, Flintshire53.2045, -3.0412from your postcode

Mowing

When you can next cut it, and the best slot this weekend.

Best weekend slot

Nothing doing

Verdict: Not worth it

Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.07).

Today afternoon is your first decent window.

Next mow

Today 3pm–7pm

Verdict: Prime time, >95% chance it holds

ground firm — 12mm rain over the last week, medium (loam) soil

  • Worth watching: Ground still soft. 25mm rain over the last week, medium (loam) soil. A mower will mark it, and a ride-on will rut it. More

The next 10 days

Each row is a day, morning on the left. The more solid a block, the more of the forecast runs agree you can mow. Open a day for the hour-by-hour forecast behind it.

  1. Monday 19 October: 4 hours worth using. 3pm–7pm — ground firm — 12mm rain over the last week, medium (loam) soil
    Monday 19 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance——————15%30%50%60%>95%>95%>95%>95%——
    VerdictAlready goneAlready goneAlready goneAlready goneAlready goneAlready goneForget itPushing itTouch and goTouch and goPrime timePrime timePrime timePrime timedarkdark
    Rainchance······0%1%0%1%0%1%0%0%0%1%
    Rainmm······——————————
    Grass······soakedsoakedwetdampdrydrydrydrydrydry
    Ground······firmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirm
    Temp······12°12°13°13°13°13°13°12°11°11°
    Windkm/h······17161715151511743
    Daylight······✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.15). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Monday 19 October · 3pm–7pmReasonably confident

    3pm–7pm — ground firm — 12mm rain over the last week, medium (loam) soil

    >95% prime time — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. Every forecast run agrees.

    Limiting factor:ground firmness

  2. Tuesday 20 October: no hours worth using. No — 0.8mm of rain falling.
    Tuesday 20 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%——
    VerdictdarkdarkdarkForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itForget itdarkdark
    Rainchance65%69%70%69%65%74%72%69%66%70%68%60%66%54%58%45%
    Rainmm0.40.50.50.60.50.80.70.80.60.70.60.50.40.40.40.2
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoft
    Temp9°9°9°10°10°10°10°11°12°12°12°12°12°12°11°11°
    Windkm/h2457494387534583
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.13). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Tuesday 20 OctoberConfident

    No — 0.8mm of rain falling.

    <5% forget it. Almost every run found the grass too wet.

    Limiting factor:grass wetness

  3. Wednesday 21 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.06).
    Wednesday 21 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%——
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growing
    Rainchance32%38%34%43%45%37%45%38%39%33%39%37%32%31%31%20%
    Rainmm0.20.40.20.40.30.40.60.60.60.60.50.40.40.30.30.2
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftbogbogbog
    Temp8°7°8°8°8°9°9°9°9°9°9°8°9°9°10°9°
    Windkm/h11121091612221615222727242118
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.06). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Wednesday 21 OctoberConfident

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.06).

    <5% nothing to cut. Almost every run found the grass barely growing.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

  4. Thursday 22 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.06).
    Thursday 22 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%10%30%30%30%30%——
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growing
    Rainchance4%4%3%1%0%0%1%0%1%14%11%16%25%25%24%46%
    Rainmm—0.1———————0.1——0.10.20.30.6
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedwetwetwetwetwetsoaked
    Groundsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoftsoft
    Temp4°3°3°4°6°7°8°10°11°12°12°12°12°11°10°10°
    Windkm/h433344566532481114
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.06). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Thursday 22 OctoberReasonably confident

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.06).

    30% nothing to cut. About 2 runs in 3 found the grass barely growing.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

  5. Friday 23 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.06).
    Friday 23 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%———
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growing
    Rainchance45%48%53%41%44%33%52%51%48%36%46%46%38%49%48%24%
    Rainmm0.60.50.70.70.60.40.60.90.70.20.60.60.50.70.60.3
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundsoggysoggysoggysoggysoggybogbogbogbogbogbogsoggysoggysoggysoggysoggy
    Temp9°9°9°9°9°9°9°8°7°7°7°7°8°8°8°8°
    Windkm/h18131216232933374041413936333030
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓———

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.06). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Friday 23 OctoberReasonably confident

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.06).

    <5% nothing to cut. Almost every run found the grass barely growing.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

  6. Saturday 24 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.07).
    Saturday 24 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%10%<5%5%<5%5%10%15%15%10%———
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growing
    Rainchance14%14%30%13%22%15%15%19%24%25%14%24%22%22%18%24%
    Rainmm0.10.20.30.10.30.20.30.40.30.50.30.50.50.30.50.5
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundsoggysoggysoddensoddensoddensoggysoddensoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggy
    Temp8°8°8°8°8°8°9°10°10°11°11°10°10°8°8°8°
    Windkm/h18181716141313131414131417202324
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓———

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.07). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Saturday 24 OctoberReasonably confident

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.07).

    15% nothing to cut. About 2 runs in 3 found the grass barely growing.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

  7. Sunday 25 October: no hours worth using. No — 0.1mm of rain falling.
    Sunday 25 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance——<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%————
    Verdictdarkdarkground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggeddarkdarkdarkdark
    Rainchance25%20%27%25%10%25%22%16%20%16%35%22%24%25%18%20%
    Rainmm0.40.20.40.50.10.40.30.30.10.20.40.20.30.20.20.3
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedwetwetwetwetdampwetdampdampwet
    Groundbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbog
    Temp16°16°16°16°16°15°15°14°14°13°12°12°11°10°10°10°
    Windkm/h18212325283133343535353535353536
    Daylight——✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓————

    Growth: growing slowly (growth potential 0.26). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Sunday 25 OctoberReasonably confident

    No — 0.1mm of rain falling.

    <5% forget it. Almost every run found the grass too wet.

    Limiting factor:grass wetness

  8. Monday 26 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.07).
    Monday 26 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance——5%5%5%10%10%10%10%10%10%10%————
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growing
    Rainchance20%20%25%16%12%24%16%14%31%14%16%18%31%12%20%25%
    Rainmm0.30.20.30.20.20.20.20.20.60.10.20.40.30.20.20.3
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundsoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoddensoggysoggysoggysoggy
    Temp6°6°7°8°9°10°11°11°11°11°11°10°10°9°9°9°
    Windkm/h1011121313141515141211977810
    Daylight——✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓————

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.07). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Monday 26 OctoberReasonably confident

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.07).

    10% nothing to cut. Almost every run found the grass barely growing.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

  9. Tuesday 27 October: no hours worth using. No — 0.6mm of rain falling.
    Tuesday 27 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———5%10%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%20%————
    VerdictdarkdarkdarkForget itForget itground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedPushing itdarkdarkdarkdark
    Rainchance20%18%27%22%24%24%22%27%14%25%24%29%18%16%18%14%
    Rainmm0.20.20.30.20.20.20.30.30.20.20.40.40.20.20.10.1
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedwetsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundsoggysoggysoggysoddensoddenbogbogbogbogbogbogsoggysoggysoggysoggysoggy
    Temp13°13°13°13°13°13°13°13°12°12°12°11°11°11°11°10°
    Windkm/h22232424252525262625242423222121
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓————

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.18). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Tuesday 27 OctoberLow confidence this far out

    No — 0.6mm of rain falling.

    20% pushing it. About 2 runs in 3 found the grass too wet.

    Limiting factor:grass wetness

  10. Wednesday 28 October: no hours worth using. No — 0.1mm of rain falling.
    Wednesday 28 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———20%20%20%20%20%25%30%30%30%————
    VerdictdarkdarkdarkPushing itPushing itPushing itPushing itPushing itPushing itPushing itPushing itPushing itdarkdarkdarkdark
    Rainchance25%4%22%10%6%14%14%10%8%8%16%4%4%24%6%8%
    Rainmm0.4—0.10.1—0.10.1——0.20.1——0.20.10.1
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedwetwetwetwetwetwetwetwetwet
    Groundsoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggysoggy
    Temp9°9°9°10°11°12°12°13°13°13°13°12°12°12°12°11°
    Windkm/h13131313141516171719202122222221
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓————

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.14). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Wednesday 28 OctoberLow confidence this far out

    No — 0.1mm of rain falling.

    30% pushing it. About 2 runs in 3 found the grass too wet.

    Limiting factor:grass wetness

good to go touch and go dark, frost or snow already goneFainter means fewer forecast runs agree.

How you feel about mowing

Sensible middle ground.

Petrol or battery. The baseline.

Growth

How fast it is growing, and when it will need cutting again.

15%Barely growing

Of the fastest this grass could grow. The turf-industry measure, from today's temperature and day length.

The lawn is barely growing, so it does not need cutting. Leave it — taking leaf off a sward that cannot replace it costs more than it gives.

Held back by both temperature and short days — 10.4 hours of daylight at 11°C.

Over the next 10 days
about 4mm of leaf
Next cut due
not within the next ten days

This only knows temperature and day length. Feeding, watering, shade and cutting height all move it, so treat it as a rough guide.

Worked out from the PACE Turf growth potential model and day length —how and why.

Seeding

Soil temperature at germination depth, and when the window opens.

Soil temperature in CH5, Flintshire

10.0°C50°F

at 6cm — germination depth

Soil is warming — it should cross 9°C in about 8 days, though the forecast doesn't run far enough to confirm it holds.

Warming over the next 10 days.

Cross-checks against an independent estimate from air temperature (10.4°C), which agrees to within 0.9°C.

Almost every UK and Irish lawn is a ryegrass and fescue mix, whether it was sown or turfed. We assume that, and use 9°C as the seeding threshold.

Thresholds for every species

The differences are small. Ryegrass is the quickest off the mark; bluegrass is the slowest and wants the warmest soil. Everything else sits between.

Soil temperature at 6cm for reliable germination. Sources onthe method page.
SpeciesSoil neededDays to sprout
Perennial ryegrasslikely yours8°C5–10
Red / chewings fescuelikely yours8–10°C10–14
Tall fescue10–12°C10–14
Browntop bentColonial bentgrass10–12°C14–21
Smooth-stalked meadow grassKentucky bluegrass12–13°C14–28

Feeding

Why timing decides whether a feed does anything at all.

Coming in the app

Grass takes up nitrogen when it is growing. Feed a lawn that has stopped and most of it washes past the roots — which is why timing beats product choice.

Right now this lawn is not growing fast enough to make much use of a feed.

The app will work out the actual feeding windows for your lawn — along with weed control, scarifying and moss treatment — and tell you when they open without you having to check.

Why timing beats product choice

CH5, Flintshire in detail

Soil temperature in CH5, Flintshire is currently 10.0°C at 6cm, and barely moving. That depth matters because it is where grass seed sits and where roots start working, and it lags air temperature by days — which is why a warm afternoon here tells you very little on its own.

Lawns in this area are typically perennial ryegrass with fescue, which is what most lawns round here are sown with. That blend needs the soil to hold above 9°C before seed germinates reliably. Soil is warming — it should cross 9°C in about 8 days, though the forecast doesn't run far enough to confirm it holds.

1 of the next 10 days look workable. As for the weekend: nothing doing. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.07).

The next recommended window in CH5 opens at 3pm on Monday 19 October, and holds while conditions stay put. Underfoot, the ground reads as firm after 12mm rain over the last week, medium (loam) soil.

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Chances counted across 94 forecast runs from MOGREPS-UK, 2km and ICON-EU-EPS, 7km and ECMWF IFS ensemble, 25km. Forecast from Open-Meteo, refreshed through the day. Soil temperature is modelled, not measured — how that works and where the thresholds come from.