Buffalo, New York
Mowing
When you can next cut it, and the best slot this weekend.
Current conditions · 4pm, this hour
Not now — ground waterlogged
- Grass
- dry
- Ground
- bog
- Rain
- —
- Temp
- 18°
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Forecast for this hour, not a measurement.
Best weekend slot
Nothing doing
Verdict: Not worth it
ground waterlogged. And nothing else in the next 10 days either.
Next mow
Not in the next 10 days
Verdict: Not worth it
ground waterlogged.
Forecast notices · next 3 days
- Warning: Frost. Tomorrow has frosted hours. Stay off it until it lifts — walking on frosted grass bruises it, and mowing it ruptures the leaf. More
- Worth watching: Ground too soft. Today: 1mm of rain over the past week has left the ground too soft to mow. A mower will mark it, and a ride-on will rut it. More
The next 10 days
Each row is a day, morning on the left. The more solid a block, the more of the forecast runs agree you can mow. Open a day for the hour-by-hour forecast behind it.
Tuesday 20 October: no hours worth using. No — ground waterlogged.
Tuesday 20 October, hour by hour 5am 6am 7am 8am 9am 10am 11am midday 1pm 2pm 3pm 4pm 5pm 6pm 7pm 8pm Chance — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — — Verdict Already gone Already gone Already gone Already gone Already gone Already gone Already gone Already gone Already gone Already gone Already gone ground waterlogged ground waterlogged ground waterlogged dark dark Rainchance · · · · · · · · · · · — — — — — Rainmm · · · · · · · · · · · — — — — — Grass · · · · · · · · · · · dry dry dry dry dry Ground · · · · · · · · · · · bog bog bog bog bog Temp · · · · · · · · · · · 18° 17° 15° 12° 10° Windkm/h · · · · · · · · · · · 16 15 12 12 11 Daylight · · · · · · · · · · · ✓ ✓ ✓ — — Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.17). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.
Tuesday 20 OctoberConfident
No — ground waterlogged.
Limiting factor:ground firmness
Wednesday 21 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.08).
Loading the hour-by-hour forecast…
Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.08). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.
Wednesday 21 OctoberConfident
Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.08).
Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.
Limiting factor:growth
Thursday 22 October: no hours worth using. No — ground waterlogged.
Loading the hour-by-hour forecast…
Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.12). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.
Thursday 22 OctoberConfident
No — ground waterlogged.
Limiting factor:ground firmness
Friday 23 October: no hours worth using. No — ground waterlogged.
Loading the hour-by-hour forecast…
Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.17). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.
Friday 23 OctoberConfident
No — ground waterlogged.
Limiting factor:ground firmness
Saturday 24 October: no hours worth using. No — ground waterlogged.
Loading the hour-by-hour forecast…
Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.16). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.
Saturday 24 OctoberReasonably confident
No — ground waterlogged.
Limiting factor:ground firmness
Sunday 25 October: no hours worth using. No — ground waterlogged.
Loading the hour-by-hour forecast…
Growth: growing slowly (growth potential 0.25). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.
Sunday 25 OctoberReasonably confident
No — ground waterlogged.
Limiting factor:ground firmness
Monday 26 October: no hours worth using. No — ground waterlogged.
Loading the hour-by-hour forecast…
Growth: growing steadily (growth potential 0.38). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.
Monday 26 OctoberReasonably confident
No — ground waterlogged.
Limiting factor:none
Tuesday 27 October: no hours worth using. No — ground waterlogged.
Loading the hour-by-hour forecast…
Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.11). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.
Tuesday 27 OctoberReasonably confident
No — ground waterlogged.
Limiting factor:ground firmness
Wednesday 28 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.10).
Loading the hour-by-hour forecast…
Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.10). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.
Wednesday 28 OctoberLow confidence this far out
Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.10).
Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.
Limiting factor:growth
Thursday 29 October: no hours worth using. No — 0.5mm of rain falling.
Loading the hour-by-hour forecast…
Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.13). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.
Thursday 29 OctoberLow confidence this far out
No — 0.5mm of rain falling.
Limiting factor:grass wetness
good to go touch and go dark, frost or snow already goneFainter means fewer forecast runs agree.
Growth
How fast it is growing, and when it will need cutting again.
17%Barely growing
Of the fastest this grass could grow. The turf-industry measure, from today's temperature and day length.
The lawn is barely growing, so it does not need cutting. Leave it — taking leaf off a sward that cannot replace it costs more than it gives.
Held back by both temperature and short days — 10.8 hours of daylight at 11°C.
- Over the next 10 days
- about 6mm of leaf
- Next cut due
- not within the next ten days
This only knows temperature and day length. Feeding, watering, shade and cutting height all move it, so treat it as a rough guide.
Worked out from the PACE Turf growth potential model and day length —how and why.
Seeding
Soil temperature at germination depth, and when the window opens.
Soil temperature in Buffalo, New York
63°F17.3°C
at 6cm — germination depth
Soil is warming — it should cross 12.5°C in about 6 days, though the forecast doesn't run far enough to confirm it holds.
Warming over the next 10 days.
Cross-checks against an independent estimate from air temperature (11.1°C), which agrees to within 1.0°C.
Most cool-season lawns in the northern US and Canada are bluegrass, tall fescue, or a mix of the two. We assume that, and use 12.5°C as the seeding threshold.
Thresholds for every species
The differences are small. Ryegrass is the quickest off the mark; bluegrass is the slowest and wants the warmest soil. Everything else sits between.
| Species | Soil needed | Days to sprout |
|---|---|---|
| Perennial ryegrass | 8°C | 5–10 |
| Red / chewings fescue | 8–10°C | 10–14 |
| Tall fescuelikely yours | 10–12°C | 10–14 |
| Browntop bentColonial bentgrass | 10–12°C | 14–21 |
| Smooth-stalked meadow grassKentucky bluegrasslikely yours | 12–13°C | 14–28 |
Feeding
Why timing decides whether a feed does anything at all.
Coming in the app
Grass takes up nitrogen when it is growing. Feed a lawn that has stopped and most of it washes past the roots — which is why timing beats product choice.
Right now this lawn is not growing fast enough to make much use of a feed.
The app will work out the actual feeding windows for your lawn — along with weed control, scarifying and moss treatment — and tell you when they open without you having to check.
Buffalo, New York in detail
Soil temperature in Buffalo, New York is currently 17.3°C at 6cm, and rising about 2.5°C over the next 10 days. That depth matters because it is where grass seed sits and where roots start working, and it lags air temperature by days — which is why a warm afternoon here tells you very little on its own.
Lawns in this area are typically Kentucky bluegrass with tall fescue, the usual mix for cool-season lawns at this latitude. That blend needs the soil to hold above 12.5°C before seed germinates reliably. Soil is warming — it should cross 12.5°C in about 6 days, though the forecast doesn't run far enough to confirm it holds.
None of the next 10 days are worth getting the mower out for. The other 10 are held back by wet grass or soft ground. As for the weekend: nothing doing. ground waterlogged. And nothing else in the next 10 days either.
Nothing in the current forecast for Buffalo opens a sensible window. The ground reads as firm after 1mm rain over the last week, coarse (sandy) soil, and that is usually what decides it at this time of year.
There is frost in the forecast for Buffalo, New York: Wednesday 21 October has hours cold enough to freeze the leaf. Stay off the grass until it lifts — mowing frosted turf ruptures the cells and the damage shows for weeks.
Save this lawn and we will email you when the windows open.
We already send you the forecast email? Use the same address.
Single-model forecast here — no ensemble covers this location, so there are no odds to show. Forecast from Open-Meteo, refreshed through the day. Soil temperature is modelled, not measured — how that works and where the thresholds come from.