BL8, Blackburn with Darwen

BL8, Blackburn with Darwen53.6051, -2.3279from your postcode

Mowing

When you can next cut it, and the best slot this weekend.

Best weekend slot

Nothing doing

Verdict: Not worth it

Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.04).

Today afternoon is your first decent window.

Next mow

Today 3pm–7pm

Verdict: Good to go, 75% chance it holds

ground firm — 12mm rain over the last week, medium (loam) soil

  • Worth watching: Ground still soft. 22mm rain over the last week, medium (loam) soil. A mower will mark it, and a ride-on will rut it. More

The next 10 days

Each row is a day, morning on the left. The more solid a block, the more of the forecast runs agree you can mow. Open a day for the hour-by-hour forecast behind it.

  1. Monday 19 October: 4 hours worth using. 3pm–7pm — ground firm — 12mm rain over the last week, medium (loam) soil
    Monday 19 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance—————<5%15%35%40%50%85%>95%>95%90%——
    VerdictAlready goneAlready goneAlready goneAlready goneAlready goneForget itPushing itPushing itTouch and goTouch and goGood to goPrime timePrime timePrime timedarkdark
    Rainchance·····29%2%0%0%0%0%0%3%8%7%1%
    Rainmm·····0.1——————————
    Grass·····soakedsoakedwetwetdampdrydrydrydrydrydry
    Ground·····firmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmfirm
    Temp·····11°12°13°13°12°13°12°12°11°12°12°
    Windkm/h·····49171515141410676
    Daylight·····✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.17). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Monday 19 October · 3pm–7pmReasonably confident

    3pm–7pm — ground firm — 12mm rain over the last week, medium (loam) soil

    75% good to go — the chance it holds right through, not the chance at any one hour. About 1 run in 4 hit rain.

    Limiting factor:ground firmness

  2. Tuesday 20 October: no hours worth using. No — 1.0mm of rain falling.
    Tuesday 20 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%——
    VerdictdarkdarkdarkForget itForget itground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggeddarkdark
    Rainchance65%68%69%67%61%73%71%68%64%70%70%62%68%63%62%53%
    Rainmm0.50.50.40.60.60.70.70.70.60.70.70.60.60.60.60.4
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundfirmfirmfirmfirmfirmbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbog
    Temp11°12°11°11°11°11°11°11°12°12°11°11°11°11°11°11°
    Windkm/h89810121014131510985335
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓——

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.17). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Tuesday 20 OctoberConfident

    No — 1.0mm of rain falling.

    <5% forget it. Almost every run found the grass too wet.

    Limiting factor:grass wetness

  3. Wednesday 21 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.05).
    Wednesday 21 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%———
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growing
    Rainchance27%34%32%42%41%40%49%49%41%43%42%40%42%49%39%29%
    Rainmm0.20.40.50.40.30.30.40.40.40.40.50.40.50.40.40.3
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbog
    Temp6°6°7°8°8°8°9°9°10°9°9°8°7°7°6°7°
    Windkm/h44465444612192424221917
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓———

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.05). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Wednesday 21 OctoberConfident

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.05).

    <5% nothing to cut. Almost every run found the grass barely growing.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

  4. Thursday 22 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.03).
    Thursday 22 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%———
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growing
    Rainchance25%26%31%7%11%16%18%8%8%13%13%16%12%11%27%52%
    Rainmm0.30.20.1——0.10.1——0.1—0.10.10.10.20.6
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbog
    Temp2°2°2°3°5°6°7°9°9°10°10°9°9°8°7°7°
    Windkm/h44566810131414121099910
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓———

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.03). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Thursday 22 OctoberConfident

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.03).

    <5% nothing to cut. Almost every run found the grass barely growing.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

  5. Friday 23 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.03).
    Friday 23 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%———
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growing
    Rainchance56%55%62%51%53%51%60%52%42%48%64%64%53%54%54%44%
    Rainmm0.80.80.90.60.70.61.110.80.70.90.90.90.80.70.6
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbog
    Temp8°8°8°8°9°9°8°8°7°6°5°4°4°5°5°5°
    Windkm/h29241915131217243136404240363330
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓———

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.03). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Friday 23 OctoberReasonably confident

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.03).

    <5% nothing to cut. Almost every run found the grass barely growing.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

  6. Saturday 24 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.04).
    Saturday 24 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%———
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growing
    Rainchance18%19%23%18%21%13%11%15%24%24%18%29%25%22%20%24%
    Rainmm0.20.20.30.20.30.10.30.40.20.50.30.80.50.60.70.8
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbog
    Temp6°6°6°6°7°7°8°9°9°9°9°8°8°7°7°7°
    Windkm/h19191918161517181917131112151820
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓———

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.04). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Saturday 24 OctoberReasonably confident

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.04).

    <5% nothing to cut. Almost every run found the grass barely growing.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

  7. Sunday 25 October: no hours worth using. No — 1.4mm of rain falling.
    Sunday 25 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance——<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%————
    Verdictdarkdarkground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggeddarkdarkdarkdark
    Rainchance33%29%27%25%29%27%35%20%24%22%35%25%25%29%14%33%
    Rainmm0.60.40.40.50.30.40.60.30.40.30.60.30.60.40.20.6
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbog
    Temp13°13°14°14°14°14°13°13°13°12°11°10°10°9°9°9°
    Windkm/h21222427303234363636363636363637
    Daylight——✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓————

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.16). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Sunday 25 OctoberReasonably confident

    No — 1.4mm of rain falling.

    <5% forget it. Almost every run found the grass too wet.

    Limiting factor:grass wetness

  8. Monday 26 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.03).
    Monday 26 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance——<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%————
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growing
    Rainchance22%22%25%14%16%20%22%14%39%12%18%18%37%14%22%25%
    Rainmm0.40.20.30.20.40.30.30.40.60.10.30.40.40.10.30.5
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbog
    Temp5°5°5°5°6°6°7°7°8°8°8°8°8°8°8°8°
    Windkm/h5791215171818161310101112119
    Daylight——✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓————

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.03). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Monday 26 OctoberReasonably confident

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.03).

    <5% nothing to cut. Almost every run found the grass barely growing.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

  9. Tuesday 27 October: no hours worth using. No — 0.8mm of rain falling.
    Tuesday 27 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance——<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%————
    Verdictdarkdarkground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggedground waterloggeddarkdarkdarkdark
    Rainchance27%22%29%25%27%25%27%29%20%25%29%35%24%16%20%22%
    Rainmm0.30.40.40.30.30.20.40.40.20.30.50.60.30.20.20.2
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbog
    Temp12°12°12°12°12°11°11°11°11°11°10°10°10°10°10°9°
    Windkm/h20212223262831323128252219181717
    Daylight——✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓————

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.12). Enough to be worth cutting. Growth decides whether a cut is wanted, not how well it will go, so it is not one of the rows above and does not move the chances.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Tuesday 27 OctoberLow confidence this far out

    No — 0.8mm of rain falling.

    <5% forget it. Almost every run found the grass too wet.

    Limiting factor:grass wetness

  10. Wednesday 28 October: nothing to cut. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.07).
    Wednesday 28 October, hour by hour
    5am6am7am8am9am10am11ammidday1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm
    Chance———<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%<5%————
    Verdictnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growingnothing to cut — the grass is barely growing
    Rainchance45%6%27%18%16%18%22%22%14%20%18%20%12%20%16%10%
    Rainmm0.60.10.20.10.10.20.20.10.10.20.10.10.10.30.10.1
    Grasssoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoakedsoaked
    Groundsoddensoddensoddensoddensoddenbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbogbog
    Temp7°7°7°8°9°9°10°10°10°10°10°10°10°10°9°9°
    Windkm/h13131314151617181818181918181817
    Daylight———✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓✓————

    Growth: barely growing (growth potential 0.07). Not enough to be worth cutting, which is why no hour is recommended today whatever the weather does.Chance is the share of 94 forecast runs — the same weather models re-run from slightly different starting conditions — in which you could have mowed that hour. The rows below it are what those runs expect on average, which is why an hour can look reasonable line by line and still fall short: the chance only counts runs where everything came together at once. Hover any cell for what the runs that ruled it out actually hit.

    Wednesday 28 OctoberLow confidence this far out

    Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.07).

    <5% nothing to cut. Almost every run found the grass barely growing.

    Nothing to cut. The odds below describe the weather only — growth decides whether a cut is wanted, and it is judged separately.

    Limiting factor:growth

good to go touch and go dark, frost or snow already goneFainter means fewer forecast runs agree.

How you feel about mowing

Sensible middle ground.

Petrol or battery. The baseline.

Growth

How fast it is growing, and when it will need cutting again.

17%Barely growing

Of the fastest this grass could grow. The turf-industry measure, from today's temperature and day length.

The lawn is barely growing, so it does not need cutting. Leave it — taking leaf off a sward that cannot replace it costs more than it gives.

Held back by both temperature and short days — 10.3 hours of daylight at 11°C.

Over the next 10 days
about 3mm of leaf
Next cut due
not within the next ten days

This only knows temperature and day length. Feeding, watering, shade and cutting height all move it, so treat it as a rough guide.

Worked out from the PACE Turf growth potential model and day length —how and why.

Seeding

Soil temperature at germination depth, and when the window opens.

Soil temperature in BL8, Blackburn with Darwen

9.4°C49°F

at 6cm — germination depth

Too cold to seed — 9.4°C at 6cm and not warming.

Cooling over the next 10 days.

Cross-checks against an independent estimate from air temperature (10.0°C), which agrees to within 0.6°C.

Almost every UK and Irish lawn is a ryegrass and fescue mix, whether it was sown or turfed. We assume that, and use 9°C as the seeding threshold.

Thresholds for every species

The differences are small. Ryegrass is the quickest off the mark; bluegrass is the slowest and wants the warmest soil. Everything else sits between.

Soil temperature at 6cm for reliable germination. Sources onthe method page.
SpeciesSoil neededDays to sprout
Perennial ryegrasslikely yours8°C5–10
Red / chewings fescuelikely yours8–10°C10–14
Tall fescue10–12°C10–14
Browntop bentColonial bentgrass10–12°C14–21
Smooth-stalked meadow grassKentucky bluegrass12–13°C14–28

Feeding

Why timing decides whether a feed does anything at all.

Coming in the app

Grass takes up nitrogen when it is growing. Feed a lawn that has stopped and most of it washes past the roots — which is why timing beats product choice.

Right now this lawn is not growing fast enough to make much use of a feed.

The app will work out the actual feeding windows for your lawn — along with weed control, scarifying and moss treatment — and tell you when they open without you having to check.

Why timing beats product choice

BL8, Blackburn with Darwen in detail

Soil temperature in BL8, Blackburn with Darwen is currently 9.4°C at 6cm, and falling about 0.8°C over the next 10 days. That depth matters because it is where grass seed sits and where roots start working, and it lags air temperature by days — which is why a warm afternoon here tells you very little on its own.

Lawns in this area are typically perennial ryegrass with fescue, which is what most lawns round here are sown with. That blend needs the soil to hold above 9°C before seed germinates reliably. Too cold to seed — 9.4°C at 6cm and not warming.

1 of the next 10 days look workable. As for the weekend: nothing doing. Nothing to cut — the grass is barely growing (growth potential 0.04).

The next recommended window in BL8 opens at 3pm on Monday 19 October, and holds while conditions stay put. Underfoot, the ground reads as firm after 12mm rain over the last week, medium (loam) soil.

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Chances counted across 94 forecast runs from MOGREPS-UK, 2km and ICON-EU-EPS, 7km and ECMWF IFS ensemble, 25km. Forecast from Open-Meteo, refreshed through the day. Soil temperature is modelled, not measured — how that works and where the thresholds come from.