Soil temperature in Thunder Bay, Ontario

Soil temperature

21.4°C71°F

at 6cm — germination depth

Cooling over the next 11 days.

Seeding conditions are open — soil is 21.4°C at 6cm and holding above 12.5°C.

Most cool-season lawns in the northern US and Canada are bluegrass, tall fescue, or a mix of the two. We assume that, and use12.5°C as the seeding threshold.

I know what grass I have

The differences are small. Ryegrass is the quickest off the mark; bluegrass is the slowest and wants the warmest soil. Everything else sits between.

Soil temperature at 6cm for reliable germination. Sources onthe method page.
SpeciesSoil tempDays
Perennial ryegrass8°C5–10
Red / chewings fescue8–10°C10–14
Tall fescuelikely yours10–12°C10–14
Browntop bentColonial bentgrass10–12°C14–21
Smooth-stalked meadow grassKentucky bluegrasslikely yours12–13°C14–28

Soil temperature at 6cm in Thunder Bay, Ontario is currently 21.4°C, and falling about 19.4°C over the next 11 days. That depth matters because it is where grass seed sits and where roots start working, and it lags air temperature by days — which is why a warm afternoon here tells you very little on its own.

Lawns in this area are typically Kentucky bluegrass with tall fescue, the usual mix for cool-season lawns at this latitude. That blend needs the soil to hold above 12.5°C before seed germinates reliably. Seeding conditions are open — soil is 21.4°C at 6cm and holding above 12.5°C.

8 of the next 10 days are good mowing days. The other 2 are held back by wet grass or soft ground. The best weekend slot right now is Saturday 8am–9pm, on the basis that no rain since Monday, ground firm.

The next recommended window in Thunder Bay opens at 8pm on Tuesday 1 September, and holds while conditions stay put. Underfoot, the ground reads as firm after 4mm rain over the last week.

See the full mowing forecast for Thunder Bay

The next 10 days

Column height is how mowable the day is; the lighter band is the best stretch within it. The line is soil temperature at 6cm. It crosses the seeding threshold inside this forecast.

12.5°C — seeding

Soil at 6cm 21.4°C cooling to 0.0°C

Tuesday 1 September: Good. 8pm–9pm — cool — 25°C

Tuesday 1 September · 8pm–9pmConfident

8pm–9pm — cool — 25°C

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain since Monday
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm4mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.98
Marginal:Temperature
Cool25°C
Good:Wind
Wind light15 km/h
Sociable hours
Your neighbours will remember it

Limiting factor:temperature

Wednesday 2 September: Good. 8am–9pm — no rain since Monday, ground firm

Wednesday 2 September · 8am–9pmConfident

8am–9pm — no rain since Monday, ground firm

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain since Monday
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm2mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 1.00
Good:Temperature
Temperature15°C
Good:Wind
Wind light8 km/h
Sociable hours
A bit early or late, but finestarts at first light

Limiting factor:none

Thursday 3 September: Good. 8am–9pm — no rain since Monday, ground firm

Thursday 3 September · 8am–9pmConfident

8am–9pm — no rain since Monday, ground firm

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain since Monday
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm2mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.92
Good:Temperature
Temperature13°C
Good:Wind
Wind light6 km/h
Sociable hours
A bit early or late, but finestarts at first light

Limiting factor:none

Friday 4 September: Good. 8am–9pm — no rain since Monday, ground firm

Friday 4 September · 8am–9pmConfident

8am–9pm — no rain since Monday, ground firm

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain since Monday
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm2mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.80
Good:Temperature
Temperature14°C
Good:Wind
Wind light11 km/h
Sociable hours
A bit early or late, but finestarts at first light

Limiting factor:none

Saturday 5 September: Good. 8am–9pm — no rain since Monday, ground firm

Saturday 5 September · 8am–9pmReasonably confident

8am–9pm — no rain since Monday, ground firm

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain since Monday
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm2mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.70
Good:Temperature
Temperature15°C
Good:Wind
Wind light8 km/h
Sociable hours
A bit early or late, but finestarts at first light

Limiting factor:none

Sunday 6 September: Good. 3pm–6pm — grass dry — rain earlier today

Sunday 6 September · 3pm–6pmReasonably confident

3pm–6pm — grass dry — rain earlier today

Poor:Grass wetness
Grass dryrain earlier today
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm2mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.85
Good:Temperature
Temperature15°C
Good:Wind
Wind light4 km/h
Sociable hours
Fine by the neighboursstarts once the dew has burnt off

Limiting factor:grass wetness

Monday 7 September: Good. 1pm–9pm — grass dry — dried off since a shower 3 hours ago

Monday 7 September · 1pm–9pmReasonably confident

1pm–9pm — grass dry — dried off since a shower 3 hours ago

Marginal:Grass wetness
Grass drydried off since a shower 3 hours ago
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm10mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.95
Good:Temperature
Temperature17°C
Good:Wind
Wind light10 km/h
Sociable hours
Fine by the neighboursstarts once the dew has burnt off

Limiting factor:grass wetness

Tuesday 8 September: Good. 8am–9pm — barely growing — growth potential 0.17

Tuesday 8 September · 8am–9pmReasonably confident

8am–9pm — barely growing — growth potential 0.17

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryrain earlier today
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm14mm rain over the last week
Poor:Growth
Barely growinggrowth potential 0.17
Good:Temperature
Temperature11°C
Good:Wind
Wind light16 km/h
Sociable hours
A bit early or late, but finestarts at first light

Limiting factor:growth

Wednesday 9 September: Not worth it. No — ground frozen.

Wednesday 9 SeptemberLow confidence this far out

No — ground frozen.

Poor:Grass wetness
Grass wetraining now
Good:Ground firmness
Ground soft in places14mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing steadilygrowth potential 0.35
Good:Temperature
Temperature13°C
Good:Wind
Wind light21 km/h

Limiting factor:grass wetness

Thursday 10 September: Not worth it. No — ground frozen.

Thursday 10 SeptemberLow confidence this far out

No — ground frozen.

Marginal:Grass wetness
Grass dryrain earlier today
Good:Ground firmness
Ground soft in places35mm rain over the last week
Marginal:Growth
Growing slowlygrowth potential 0.31
Good:Temperature
Temperature10°C
Good:Wind
Wind light9 km/h

Limiting factor:grass wetness

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