Soil temperature in Brandon, Manitoba

Soil temperature

20.4°C69°F

at 6cm — germination depth

Cooling over the next 11 days.

Seeding conditions are open — soil is 20.4°C at 6cm and holding above 12.5°C.

Most cool-season lawns in the northern US and Canada are bluegrass, tall fescue, or a mix of the two. We assume that, and use12.5°C as the seeding threshold.

I know what grass I have

The differences are small. Ryegrass is the quickest off the mark; bluegrass is the slowest and wants the warmest soil. Everything else sits between.

Soil temperature at 6cm for reliable germination. Sources onthe method page.
SpeciesSoil tempDays
Perennial ryegrass8°C5–10
Red / chewings fescue8–10°C10–14
Tall fescuelikely yours10–12°C10–14
Browntop bentColonial bentgrass10–12°C14–21
Smooth-stalked meadow grassKentucky bluegrasslikely yours12–13°C14–28

Soil temperature at 6cm in Brandon, Manitoba is currently 20.4°C, and falling about 17.2°C over the next 11 days. That depth matters because it is where grass seed sits and where roots start working, and it lags air temperature by days — which is why a warm afternoon here tells you very little on its own.

Lawns in this area are typically Kentucky bluegrass with tall fescue, the usual mix for cool-season lawns at this latitude. That blend needs the soil to hold above 12.5°C before seed germinates reliably. Seeding conditions are open — soil is 20.4°C at 6cm and holding above 12.5°C.

8 of the next 10 days are good mowing days. The other 2 are held back by wet grass or soft ground. The best weekend slot right now is Saturday 9am–3pm, on the basis that dried off since a shower 1 hour ago, ground firm.

The next recommended window in Brandon opens at 7pm on Tuesday 1 September, and holds while conditions stay put. Underfoot, the ground reads as soft in places after 46mm rain over the last week.

See the full mowing forecast for Brandon

The next 10 days

Column height is how mowable the day is; the lighter band is the best stretch within it. The line is soil temperature at 6cm. It crosses the seeding threshold inside this forecast.

12.5°C — seeding

Soil at 6cm 19.9°C cooling to 0.0°C

Tuesday 1 September: Good. 7pm–9pm — no rain since Sunday, ground soft in places

Tuesday 1 September · 7pm–9pmConfident

7pm–9pm — no rain since Sunday, ground soft in places

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain since Sunday
Good:Ground firmness
Ground soft in places46mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.84
Good:Temperature
Temperature21°C
Good:Wind
Wind light5 km/h
Sociable hours
A bit early or late, but fine

Limiting factor:none

Wednesday 2 September: Good. 8am–9pm — no rain since Sunday, ground firm

Wednesday 2 September · 8am–9pmConfident

8am–9pm — no rain since Sunday, ground firm

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain since Sunday
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm46mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.87
Good:Temperature
Temperature12°C
Good:Wind
Wind light5 km/h
Sociable hours
A bit early or late, but finestarts when it stops being antisocial

Limiting factor:none

Thursday 3 September: Good. 8am–11am — ground soft in places — 46mm rain over the last week

Thursday 3 September · 8am–11amConfident

8am–11am — ground soft in places — 46mm rain over the last week

Marginal:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain since Sunday
Good:Ground firmness
Ground soft in places46mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.92
Good:Temperature
Temperature14°C
Good:Wind
Wind light16 km/h
Sociable hours
A bit early or late, but finestarts when it stops being antisocial

Limiting factor:ground firmness

Friday 4 September: Good. midday–3pm — ground firm — 58mm rain over the last week

Friday 4 September · midday–3pmConfident

midday–3pm — ground firm — 58mm rain over the last week

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryrain earlier today
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm58mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 1.00
Marginal:Temperature
Temperature16°C
Good:Wind
Wind light9 km/h
Sociable hours
Fine by the neighboursstarts once the dew has burnt off

Limiting factor:ground firmness

Saturday 5 September: Good. 9am–3pm — dried off since a shower 1 hour ago, ground firm

Saturday 5 September · 9am–3pmReasonably confident

9am–3pm — dried off since a shower 1 hour ago, ground firm

Good:Grass wetness
Grass drydried off since a shower 1 hour ago
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm45mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.91
Marginal:Temperature
Temperature19°C
Good:Wind
Wind light19 km/h
Sociable hours
A bit early or late, but finestarts once the rain has passed

Limiting factor:none

Sunday 6 September: Good. 11am–9pm — rain earlier today, ground firm

Sunday 6 September · 11am–9pmReasonably confident

11am–9pm — rain earlier today, ground firm

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryrain earlier today
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm46mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.96
Good:Temperature
Temperature18°C
Good:Wind
Wind light9 km/h
Sociable hours
Fine by the neighboursstarts once the dew has burnt off

Limiting factor:none

Monday 7 September: Good. 8am–9pm — no rain since Saturday, ground firm

Monday 7 September · 8am–9pmReasonably confident

8am–9pm — no rain since Saturday, ground firm

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain since Saturday
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm49mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.62
Good:Temperature
Temperature13°C
Good:Wind
Wind light21 km/h
Sociable hours
A bit early or late, but finestarts at first light

Limiting factor:none

Tuesday 8 September: Good. 8am–11am — growing slowly — growth potential 0.20

Tuesday 8 September · 8am–11amReasonably confident

8am–11am — growing slowly — growth potential 0.20

Poor:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain since Saturday
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm15mm rain over the last week
Poor:Growth
Growing slowlygrowth potential 0.20
Good:Temperature
Temperature10°C
Good:Wind
Wind light19 km/h
Sociable hours
A bit early or late, but finestarts at first light

Limiting factor:growth

Wednesday 9 September: Not worth it. No — ground frozen.

Wednesday 9 SeptemberLow confidence this far out

No — ground frozen.

Poor:Grass wetness
Grass damprain 4 hours ago
Poor:Ground firmness
Ground soft21mm rain over the last week
Marginal:Growth
Growing slowlygrowth potential 0.29
Good:Temperature
Temperature11°C
Good:Wind
Wind light21 km/h

Limiting factor:grass wetness

Thursday 10 September: Not worth it. No — ground frozen.

Thursday 10 SeptemberLow confidence this far out

No — ground frozen.

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryrain earlier today
Marginal:Ground firmness
Ground soft in places52mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing steadilygrowth potential 0.38
Good:Temperature
Temperature11°C
Good:Wind
Wind light8 km/h

Limiting factor:ground firmness

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