Dayton, Ohio

Best weekend slot

Monday 10am–2pm

Verdict: Good

no rain since Saturday, ground firm

Next mow

Tomorrow 8am–11am

Verdict: Good

growing slowly — growth potential 0.31

How you feel about mowing

Sensible middle ground.

Petrol or battery. The baseline.

The next 10 days

Column height is how mowable the day is; the lighter band is the best stretch within it. The line is soil temperature at 6cm. It crosses the seeding threshold inside this forecast.

12.5°C — seeding

Soil at 6cm 27.2°C cooling to 0.0°C

Tuesday 1 September: Not worth it. No — heat stress, 28°C.

Tuesday 1 SeptemberConfident

No — heat stress, 28°C.

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain since Wednesday
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm37mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing steadilygrowth potential 0.38
Poor:Temperature
Heat stress26°C
Good:Wind
Wind light6 km/h

Limiting factor:temperature

Wednesday 2 September: Good. 8am–11am — growing slowly — growth potential 0.31

Wednesday 2 September · 8am–11amConfident

8am–11am — growing slowly — growth potential 0.31

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain since Wednesday
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm37mm rain over the last week
Marginal:Growth
Growing slowlygrowth potential 0.31
Poor:Temperature
Cool23°C
Good:Wind
Wind light6 km/h
Sociable hours
A bit early or late, but finestarts at first light

Limiting factor:growth

Thursday 3 September: Good. 8am–11am — growing slowly — growth potential 0.30

Thursday 3 September · 8am–11amConfident

8am–11am — growing slowly — growth potential 0.30

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain in over a week
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm37mm rain over the last week
Marginal:Growth
Growing slowlygrowth potential 0.30
Poor:Temperature
Temperature23°C
Good:Wind
Wind light7 km/h
Sociable hours
A bit early or late, but finestarts at first light

Limiting factor:growth

Friday 4 September: Good. 1pm–2pm — growing slowly — growth potential 0.31

Friday 4 September · 1pm–2pmConfident

1pm–2pm — growing slowly — growth potential 0.31

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain in over a week
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm0mm rain over the last week
Marginal:Growth
Growing slowlygrowth potential 0.31
Poor:Temperature
Cool25°C
Good:Wind
Wind light7 km/h
Sociable hours
Fine by the neighbours

Limiting factor:growth

Saturday 5 September: Good. 4pm–9pm — grass dry — dried off since a shower 4 hours ago

Saturday 5 September · 4pm–9pmReasonably confident

4pm–9pm — grass dry — dried off since a shower 4 hours ago

Poor:Grass wetness
Grass drydried off since a shower 4 hours ago
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm0mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.85
Good:Temperature
Temperature20°C
Good:Wind
Wind light8 km/h
Sociable hours
Fine by the neighboursstarts once the dew has burnt off

Limiting factor:grass wetness

Sunday 6 September: Good. 10am–8pm — rain earlier today, ground firm

Sunday 6 September · 10am–8pmReasonably confident

10am–8pm — rain earlier today, ground firm

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryrain earlier today
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm7mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.98
Good:Temperature
Temperature15°C
Good:Wind
Wind light9 km/h
Sociable hours
Fine by the neighboursstarts when it stops being antisocial

Limiting factor:none

Monday 7 September: Good. 10am–2pm — no rain since Saturday, ground firm

Monday 7 September · 10am–2pmReasonably confident

10am–2pm — no rain since Saturday, ground firm

Good:Grass wetness
Grass dryno rain since Saturday
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm7mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.94
Marginal:Temperature
Temperature17°C
Good:Wind
Wind light3 km/h
Sociable hours
Fine by the neighboursstarts when it stops being antisocial

Limiting factor:none

Tuesday 8 September: Good. No — 0.6mm of rain falling.

Tuesday 8 SeptemberReasonably confident

No — 0.6mm of rain falling.

Poor:Grass wetness
Grass wetraining now
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm7mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.96
Good:Temperature
Temperature19°C
Good:Wind
Wind light7 km/h

Limiting factor:grass wetness

Wednesday 9 September: Not worth it. No — ground frozen.

Wednesday 9 SeptemberLow confidence this far out

No — ground frozen.

Poor:Grass wetness
Grass drydried off since a shower 3 hours ago
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm25mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.91
Marginal:Temperature
Temperature20°C
Good:Wind
Wind light6 km/h

Limiting factor:grass wetness

Thursday 10 September: Not worth it. No — ground frozen.

Thursday 10 SeptemberLow confidence this far out

No — ground frozen.

Good:Grass wetness
Grass drydried off since a shower 3 hours ago
Good:Ground firmness
Ground firm29mm rain over the last week
Good:Growth
Growing wellgrowth potential 0.75
Good:Temperature
Temperature22°C
Good:Wind
Wind light14 km/h

Limiting factor:grass wetness

Soil temperature

83°F28.1°C

at 6cm — germination depth

Cooling over the next 11 days.

Too warm to seed — the soil is heat-stressed. Wait for it to cool.

Most cool-season lawns in the northern US and Canada are bluegrass, tall fescue, or a mix of the two. We assume that, and use12.5°C as the seeding threshold.

I know what grass I have

The differences are small. Ryegrass is the quickest off the mark; bluegrass is the slowest and wants the warmest soil. Everything else sits between.

Soil temperature at 6cm for reliable germination. Sources onthe method page.
SpeciesSoil tempDays
Perennial ryegrass8°C5–10
Red / chewings fescue8–10°C10–14
Tall fescuelikely yours10–12°C10–14
Browntop bentColonial bentgrass10–12°C14–21
Smooth-stalked meadow grassKentucky bluegrasslikely yours12–13°C14–28

What this means right now

  • Warning: Too warm to seed

    Too warm to seed — the soil is heat-stressed. Wait for it to cool.

  • Warning: Heat stress

    Tuesday 1 September gets hot enough to stress the sward. Mow early or late, and raise the height.

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Forecast from Open-Meteo, refreshed hourly. Soil temperature is modelled, not measured — how that works and where the thresholds come from.